Vol 7 Test 10 Part 4

Section 4
In this final lecture of our course on the history of science, I would like to look to the future and tell you about some predictions that have been made about scientific developments. The content for my talk is based on some research in which 30 scientific leaders were invited to comment on the developments that they envisage as likely to come about in their own discipline within 50 years. After summarizing some of their most interesting contributions for you, I'll ask you to give me your opinions as to the likelihood of these changes occurring within this timescale.
(21:05 - 21:34)
You may also like to suggest some other likely changes yourselves. So first, let's start with computer science, as this is clearly an area where there are bound to be dramatic developments and, even more significantly perhaps, these developments are likely to impact on every other field of learning. The invention of computers represents an enormous leap forward in the field of human endeavor.
(21:35 - 22:12)
It could indeed be considered as being as momentous a development as when our predecessors in caves first learned to make fire and use it for all sorts of purposes. In the future, the computational revolution is certain to be generally recognized as a transformation as significant as, say, the industrial revolution. The computer scientists in the study I referred to felt that, in the coming decades, lives will be significantly enhanced by automated reasoning systems of different types.
(22:13 - 22:46)
There was considerable agreement that people will increasingly perceive these computer systems as intelligent. Although many of these will be deployed behind the scenes, others will be in the foreground, serving in an elegant, often collaborative manner to help people do their jobs, to learn and teach, to reflect and remember, to plan and decide. Without going into further detail about this at this point, let's turn to what predictions psychologists had to make.
(22:47 - 23:17)
Their key point was that psychological research would inevitably become increasingly varied. It would move into such areas as behavioral economics and social neuroscience. There is likely to be further expansion into domains with more practical relevance as increasing numbers of women become research scientists, so areas such as health, environment, family and social identity will receive more attention.
(23:18 - 23:44)
At the same time as they broaden their horizons, psychologists will also intensify their search to discover what exactly determines how we act. They will be assisted in this by imaging devices that will be inserted into the brain and provide a great deal of information about how it behaves. There should be some fascinating discoveries coming to light very soon.
(23:49 - 24:14)
Another field that is currently undergoing enormous changes is that of genetics. It is not new to suggest that average life expectancy is likely to continue rising in most countries. However, today geneticists emphasize that it is vital that the increasing number of the elderly in society must take quality of life into account.
(24:14 - 24:47)
So how will genetics help this to happen? To start with, they hope to develop technologies that can sequence each person's genome extremely cheaply. This information about our DNA enables health care providers to predict our likelihood of suffering from any particular disease. From there on, it is a matter of weighing up various factors with a view to determining what can be done to minimize each individual's level of risk.
(24:48 - 25:12)
With such information in hand, new treatments will be developed, and the current one-size-fits-all approach to health care will give way to a more personal approach. The final subject area that I wish to bring to your attention is that of zoology. Once again, computers and technology have a key role to play here.
(25:13 - 25:43)
Experts comment specifically on the importance of satellites for future developments in this field. These enable people to explore the world from their homes, offices, and schools. It is now possible, for instance, to go online and see for yourself the abundant wildlife in one part of East Africa and in the surrounding region the harm people have done by destroying the forests, all supposedly in the name of development.
(25:45 - 26:12)
Zoologists believe the breakthrough that lies ahead is how people act on such information as this. They hope that we will learn to connect our minds to our hearts and apply this new knowledge to help protect our planet. They express a clear hope that a greater understanding of the consequences of human short-sightedness will make people anxious to rectify what we can before it is too late.
(26:16 - 26:17)
That is the end of Part 4.